If you've had to drive through St. Johns County, south of Race Track Rd., east of I-95 and west of the new 9B, then you know without a doubt that there's a massive amount of construction currently underway. That's because Gate Petroleum is presently working to bring the single largest shopping area in Northeast Florida to life, and the name of this new development is Durbin Park.

                Ultimately, the final project will cover 1,600 acres of land, with 2.4 million square feet of retail space, 2.8 million square feet of office space, in addition to 999 multifamily units and 350 hotel rooms. The Gate property was previously part of the Cummer family trust and Phase I of the project is scheduled to open in the second quarter of next year, according the Stuart Korfhage of the St. Augustine Record. And if you're looking for a basis of comparison, the entire St. Johns Town Center only has 1.4 million square feet of retail space. Calling it big is a bit of an understatement.             

The Phases of Development

                Phase I will be built on an 80-acre parcel to the west of 9B and will premier approximately 700,000 square feet of retail space, which will be anchored by three major retailers.

                Phase II will open a year or a year and a half later, with a nice blend of restaurants and retail. To date, only one retailer has officially announced plans to open there, Bass Pro Shops.

                The final phase, which will be located east of I-95, will feature the offices.

Why It's Time

                Northern St. Johns County has attracted residents at rapid rates, consistently coming is as one of the fastest-growing regions in all Northeast Florida.  However, the shopping and dining options haven't been able to keep pace with that growth. Cliff Taylor, a retail specialist who also serves as the senior VP for CBRE summarized it well, "You've got he No. 1 school district in the state, they're putting up homes like you can't believe and they're all fleeing the neighborhood to shop."

                While Durbin Park will be a definite blessing to those in the immediate community, other retail regions are expected to really feel the pinch, especially The Avenues.

                Gate's partner in the endeavor, Gatlin Development, has been very busy in the region, where they typically focus on projects that fall in the 300-700k square foot range. The new Walmart Supercenter that was just completed on Collins Rd. is just one part of their portfolio. Durbin Park's Phase II will be the largest retail project Frank Gatlin has ever spearheaded.

Zooming Out for the Big Picture

                Once Durbin Park opens, it won't be just the homes and properties in the immediate vicinity that will be impacted. In a recent Jacksonville Business Journal article by Derek Gilliam, the greater Jacksonville region's home prices are projected to increase by another 6%.  "According to data from Black Knight Financial Services… Black Knight's home price index puts the average price for a house in the River City at $199,000, which is 19.9% from the area's peak in June 2006." In another article, he shared that while rents are increasing in the region, they're doing so slower than incomes are rising. "From 2012 to 2015, rents in Jacksonville went form an average of $10,632 per year to $11,556 per year – an increase of 8.7 percent. Fortunately for the people living in Jacksonville, this is not as high as the increase in incomes. Residents saw incomes rise 12.7 percent on average over the same period."

                Even though incomes are rising faster than rents, when you compare the median incomes to the median rents, rent costs are still above the 30 percent threshold which the Census Bureau labels as "rent burdened." Hopefully, as new retail stores, restaurants and businesses come to the region, residents will feel less of a pinch.

                Our Metro region just saw a 3.2 percent increase in millennials in the city, and most of them aren't looking to buy homes – they want to rent. "Despite popular stereotypes about millennials wanting urban lifestyles and amenities – good jobs and strong wage growth remain a key deciding factor for millennials across the country."

                But walkability DOES matter. In fact, there is a direct correlation (not to be confused with causation) between rent and Walk Scores. In a February article by Nick Fitzpatrick we learned that the data backs it up. "An Axiometrics study of Metro areas showed that sub-markets with the highest-ranked Walk Score in the market tend to have the highest average rent per unit."

                Whether you own a property in the immediate vicinity or a bit further outfield, Durbin Park will prove a boon to the region, bringing in more entertainment and economic opportunities for everyone.

Written By Signature Staff Member: Jennifer Gibbs, Marketing Director